macroVS: Summer Reading List

Our Top recommendations for your August holiday reading | A look at the last few months of public policy data

*****10 August 2023****UPDATED READING LIST******

Could not resist. Am adding two more essays: one from Foreign Affairs and one from the Atlantic Council.

1. Foreign Affairs: Friendshoring and strategic disengagement may be the flavor of the year as the West tries to disentangle itself from China and Russia. But the strategy holds some risks.

The underpinnings of the Bretton Woods institutions (including the WTO) sought to create economic interdependencies that would make kinetic engagements too expensive. The pandemic laid bare the adverse impact of being too integrated, disrupting supply chains that may never recover. New supply chains are being built.

Before you cheer the creation of a new set of competing economic blocks, consider the risks and issues that arise as developed economies seek strategic independence. This Foreign Affairs essay does a great job of describing the challenges that appear on the near horizon amid strategic economic policy shifts.

2. Atlantic Council and the Energy Transition: Did the Inflation Reduction Act move the needle on the energy transition? Is it having the intended effect? Has the international furor regarding protectionism subsided? Is it too soon to say because it takes time for the federal government to award and then disburse billions? My colleagues at the Atlantic Council take on these issues and more in their 1-year retrospective on the Inflation Reduction Act.

Given the new Biden Executive Order this week regarding inbound and outbound investment activity in relation to China, these are not academic questions. The Executive Order was silent on the solar and wind sectors, where the overwhelming majority of components are currently manufactured in China.

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The first half of 2023 has been quite a ride for all of us in the global macro ecosystem. From SVB in March to persistently sticky inflation dynamics, from deepening supply chain challenges as geopolitical tensions increased from China and North Korea to Russia — not to mention the US debt ceiling dramas — central bankers have had their hands full.

Last week, most of the major central banks made their last rate calls of the summer. All met expectations except Japan. Things will go very quiet in central banking for the next few weeks.

This final episode of July thus takes a look at what the data dynamics showed us between March (when SVB, Silvergate, and Signature went down) and today. Instead of a Quote of the Week, we deliver for your consideration the top three “big think” documents that should be on your beach/mountain reading list.

Listen to the Podcast:

macroVS: Your Summer Reading List